As the end of the year approaches, and the new year 2023 begins, we will see more and more articles appearing like “trends for 2023”, “trends for 2023 – what to do and what to avoid”, “discover the hottest trends for 2023”. Before we get caught up in this New Year’s trend carousel, let’s think about what trends are, how they work and how to use them wisely.
Trend and its manifestation
When most people think of a trend, they imagine it to be, for example, a popular color, a cut of pants, or a sofa pattern. These are not trends, but rather manifestations of them, dominant aesthetics that come from a larger movement, a way of thinking derived from currently prevailing human needs, the situation in the world, and beyond. For example, a few seasons ago, orange became popular. What was the reason for the orange color? From the fascination with the 70s, when it was fashionable. The 70s, in turn, refer to the trend of nostalgia, or longing for the past, which grew out of the Covid-19 pandemic, human discouragement with modernity and the pursuit of memories of the times when everything was good.
So what is a trend?
It is a certain development trend, direction of change or regularity connecting different signals of change, usually occurring over a longer period of time. For example, a trend would be Clean energy, which results from increasing energy and ecological awareness.
It is also worth paying attention to the phenomenon fad, or short-lived popularity, temporary hype, or seasonal fashion, which are often called a “trend” but only last a moment. As an example, we can give all the “trends” that appear in fast fashion or social media, e.g. Regency Core, which emerged with the popularity of the series Bridgertons.
Trend Features
Now that we know what trends are, let's take a look at their properties. The first one we can distinguish is their maturity, or “how far” their popularity has advanced. Trend maturity is divided into 3 phases:
- NEW NORMAL – current, leading trends,
- REACTIVE ZONE – short-term perspective, a trend needs 1-5 years to become mainstream, during which time a given issue matures quickly and its popularity increases,
- INNOVATION ZONE – medium-term perspective, the trend needs 5-20 years to become mainstream,
- FORESIGHT ZONE – long-term perspective, a trend needs more than 20 years to become mainstream.
From a business perspective and building long-term strategies, it will be most beneficial for us to notice and take into account emerging trends from foresight and the innovation zone. For shorter-term plans, introducing new products or services, we should focus on observing the New Normal and Reactive zone.
We can also determine the maturity of trends (but rather short-term ones) by placing them on Diffusion of Innovation Curve. It will be most desirable for us to find and apply trends that are in the first phases – Innovators and Early Adopters
When analyzing trends, we can also divide them according to their size:
- Megatrends – global changes, composed of the basic needs of society, innovations and factors (signals of change).,
- Macrotrends – changes of a regional and continental nature,
- Mesotrends – industry-wide trends,
- Microtrends – local or market.
Where do these trends come from?
In everyday work and communication, it is best to observe reality – if something seems interesting, strange, and especially if it appears in several different, completely unrelated places – it is most likely a signal of change that should be noticed and further paid attention to. For far-reaching strategies, it is best to rely on specialists in this field. There are many trend research companies that issue trendbooks and reports, as well as trend maps. Some of them are available free of charge, e.g. Infuture Institute Trend Map or Terra Incognita What's Next.
What can we use trends for?
Why do we need all this? Trends, or important directions of change, should primarily affect:
- Products and services for the customer of the future – efficient operation in the world of trends and signals translates into their interpretation in products and services that our customers will need in a moment.
- Brand Mission and Vision – identifying, understanding (and anticipating) trends helps us understand how the brand should change, which values manifested in trends and which are key for our client we should implement.
- Brand Strategy – trends are the starting point for building innovation in business, they allow us to consider what the direction of development should be and what strategies to build.
- Brand Communication – companies and brands should efficiently identify trends, reinterpret them and thus show how they understand the modern world.
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Working with trends is an incredibly fascinating subject. However, contrary to popular thinking – it is not guessing the future, but a careful observation of the present, what changes are taking place, what people consider important. As William Gibson once said "There is nothing new to say about the future. The future is now, only unevenly distributed.”. I encourage you to pay close attention to what is happening here and now, and to actively create the present. After all, what we do now has an impact on what will happen soon. The future is the only area that we can still shape.
The article was developed based on Monika Borycka's workshops "How to design the future based on upcoming trends" and "How we will live in cities. Prototyping the future of cities based on trends", MediaLab, 2021, 2022.